This annual report refers to the status as of 31 December 2025. It analyses the key developments and challenges of the past year and concludes with an outlook on the changing market conditions from 2026 onwards. The focus is particularly on political and economic framework conditions as well as monetary policy decisions in the major economic areas.

The year 2025 was characterised by high volatility, geopolitical uncertainties and a monetary policy turning point, which was accompanied by noticeable disinflation and the return to a normalised interest rate environment.

In this challenging environment, the Ginmon investment strategies proved to be robustly and disciplinedly positioned and were therefore well prepared for different market phases. Although the first half of the year was characterised by temporary setbacks, our strategies were able to catch up significantly with the overall market as the year progressed. Supported by broad global diversification, rule-based rebalancing and the effect of evidence-based performance drivers, all strategies closed the year clearly positive.

This annual report covers the following four topics:

• Performance: The development of our strategies in 2025 shows a solid and balanced performance overall. The growth-oriented strategy Global 10 achieved an annual return of 14.32%, while Green 10 also made significant gains at 11.33%. The more defensive variants Global 5 (7.26%) and Green 5 (5.92%) confirmed their stabilising role in the portfolio and underlined the effect of a balanced asset allocation.

• Inflation and interest rate policy: The monetary policy turnaround significantly shaped the 2025 market year. At the end of the year, inflation in the eurozone was at 2.0%, and in the US at 2.7%. The ECB left its key interest rate unchanged at 2.0% after the cut in June, while the US Federal Reserve most recently lowered its target range to 3.50 – 3.75% on 10 December 2025.

• Global impulses: Political events heavily determined the market environment. Despite temporary volatility, equity markets were overall resilient and ended the year at new highs. Gold recorded a historically extraordinary performance, supported by geopolitical risks, a weakness of the US dollar and increased central bank demand. A turnaround began on the bond markets over the course of the year, while factor premiums shifted: Value achieved a clear positive premium again after two weak years, while Size remained overall negative but showed clear signs of stabilisation towards the end of the year.

• Business development: The Ginmon Group now manages assets of nearly half a billion euros and operates profitably at group level. The new, highly scalable infrastructure is already rolled out in over eleven countries; existing clients are being migrated to the new platform in stages. All new individual accounts as well as new account types, including children's and pension accounts, fully digital corporate accounts and joint accounts, are already being opened on the new infrastructure. An update to the existing Ginmon investment strategies is planned for the current year. With a view to retirement planning, Ginmon is also preparing the launch of an eligible retirement pension plan including a payout plan from 01/01/2027.

How have our strategies developed?

At the beginning of 2025, the market environment was characterised by high volatility. Until April, all strategies went significantly into the negative as a result of the weak market environment, with the growth-oriented strategies Global 10 and Green 10 experiencing the sharpest setbacks, while Global 5 and Green 5 remained somewhat more stable due to their more defensive alignment. From the second quarter onwards, a continuous recovery set in across all risk classes, which lasted for most of the year.

As the year progressed, the divergence between the risk classes became visibly more pronounced: with an increasing equity allocation, performance also increased. The upward movement accelerated particularly in autumn, and short-term setbacks were quickly recovered. By the end of the year, all strategies closed positive. Global 10 achieved the highest return at +14.32%, followed by Green 10 at +11.33%. The balanced strategies Global 5 (+7.26%) and Green 5 (+5.92%) also developed positively.

The Global 10 strategy has shown a clear and robust upward trend since its inception. Despite temporary, market-driven setbacks, for example during the Corona crisis or in phases of monetary tightening, the long-term increase in value continued continuously. At the end of 2025, the cumulative overall performance stands at +134%, meaning the invested capital has more than doubled.

The year 2025 also fits into this picture: after a volatile phase in spring, there was a significant acceleration, especially in the second half of the year. Setbacks during the year proved to be temporary and were quickly recovered. To close the year, Global 10 reached a new all-time high, which underlines the resilience and the long-term character of the rule-based investment approach.

In the long term, investors in Gimon strategies benefit clearly from a higher equity allocation and broad diversification. The 5-year comparison shows a clear return advantage for growth-oriented strategies: Global 10 achieved a return of 66.1% over this period, while more defensive variants showed correspondingly lower, but more stable returns. This risk-return relationship is also becoming increasingly visible over a three-year period.

The results underline that patience and a long-term investment horizon pay off. As the holding period increases, the strategic allocation unfolds its full effect, particularly with higher risk classes. This confirms once again: discipline, diversification and foresight are crucial for sustainable investment success.

What is next for inflation and interest rates?

Over the course of 2025, the disinflation trend that had been visible since the middle of the year continued in the Eurozone as well as in the US. Over the entire year, inflation rates in both economic areas fell noticeably and approached the monetary policy targets again. At the end of 2025, inflation in the eurozone was around 2.0%, and in the US around 2.7%. Temporary counter-movements during the year did not change the overall picture: the high-inflation phase of 2022 and 2023 is structurally overcome.

This development was mainly supported by falling energy prices, the normalisation of global supply chains and easing price pressure on industrial goods; core inflation also declined in both regions. Current OECD projections confirm this trend and expect an inflation rate close to the 2 per cent target for 2026, tending to be slightly below in the eurozone and slightly above in the US. A renewed lease of inflation therefore seems unlikely. Correspondingly, the monetary policy focus is shifting increasingly from fighting inflation to stabilising growth. Inflation risks remain, but are currently directed rather asymmetrically downwards.

A clear monetary policy turning point occurred at the beginning of the year. The ECB gradually lowered its key interest rate in the first half of the year and left it stable thereafter at 2.0%, meaning that at the end of the year it was exactly at the level of the inflation target. Monetary policy is thus significantly less restrictive than in previous years and marks the return to a normalised interest rate environment. In the US, the Federal Reserve also initiated several rate cuts in the second half of the year after a longer interest rate pause; at the end of the year, the target range for the federal funds rate was at 3.50 to 3.75%. Easing inflation pressure, a cooling of the labour market and increasing growth risks were the decisive factors.

OECD projections indicate that this environment will continue. Stable interest rates around 2% are likely for the eurozone throughout 2026, with only limited room for further cuts. 

As a result, real interest rates are moving close to zero in the long term. For investors, this means: cash and liquidity lose attractiveness structurally, while market investments remain necessary to achieve real returns. The normalised interest rate environment supports longer-term investments in particular and increases the importance of capital market returns compared to traditional interest income.

What moves the markets

Equity markets

The equity market environment was characterised by strong regional phases and varying market conditions. In the first quarter, political factors dominated market action: the US election year, increasing protectionism and announced punitive tariffs weighed significantly, particularly on US markets. European equities held up better in this environment, supported by more favourable valuations and the expectation of additional investment impulses. In the second quarter, the market environment calmed down despite ongoing geopolitical risks. Equity markets moved sideways overall, while exchange rate developments increasingly came into focus, dampening returns for euro investors. Valuation and selectivity grew in importance.

As the year progressed, risk appetite returned noticeably. In the third quarter, technology and AI-driven stocks benefited in particular, growth stocks dominated, and emerging markets performed above average. Small caps were able to recover temporarily but remained volatile. At the same time, the markets began to price in interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. In the fourth quarter, equity markets showed high resilience despite political and geopolitical burdens. Falling inflation and implemented interest rate cuts supported valuations, and new all-time highs were reached in the US and Europe. Overall, equity markets ended the year clearly positive.

Rating, bonds and currencies

At the beginning of the year, there was initially no clear trend on the bond markets. In the first quarter, interest rates remained at a high level, bond markets reacted cautiously and focused primarily on monetary policy signals rather than running yields. The US dollar initially showed stability. In the second quarter, exchange rates gained importance: the euro appreciated and noticeably burdened international returns for euro investors, while interest rate differentials lost relevance compared to capital flows. However, a sustainable turnaround in the bond markets had not yet materialised at this point.

The picture changed later in the year. In the third quarter, expected rate cuts led to a noticeable recovery in bond markets, while France's downgrade increased sensitivity to fiscal risks. At the same time, the US dollar began to weaken significantly, which particularly benefited emerging market bonds. In the fourth quarter, bonds achieved positive returns again, supported by the US Federal Reserve's rate cuts and falling short-term interest rates. The US dollar moved sideways, and credit assessments remained overall stable. All in all, the currency difference between US dollar and euro performance came into sharper focus and became a central driving factor for the actual return on international investments.

Gold and Bitcoin

Gold performed exceptionally strong in 2025. Already in the first half of the year, the price of gold benefited from geopolitical risks, political uncertainty and falling real interest rates. As the year progressed, the upward movement accelerated significantly. Driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions, high US national debt, US dollar weakness and increased central bank demand, gold reached several new all-time highs. At the end of the year, there was an annual performance of +64.37% (in USD). This development is historically extraordinary and confirms gold's function as a hedging instrument in phases of increased uncertainty. However, it is not to be expected permanently, as gold does not generate running income and its price development is primarily shaped by macroeconomic special situations and the real interest rate environment. Gold is therefore less suitable as a structural source of return, but primarily for diversification, for stabilising portfolios and preserving value in times of crisis.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, exhibited extreme fluctuations with sometimes significant loss phases over the course of the year. The value development was not very steady and was hardly predictable. Due to the high volatility, the lack of a running income base and limited long-term experience, Bitcoin is, from our internal perspective, not a suitable core building block for structured, long-term wealth accumulation.

Geopolitics

The year began with an environment heavily influenced by politics. The US election year, announced punitive tariffs and increasing protectionism caused greater uncertainty in the first quarter and particularly weighed on US markets. In the rest of the year, although there was no escalation, structural tensions remained. Markets increasingly adapted to this environment and learned to better categorise geopolitical risks without pricing them in permanently.

In the second half of the year, signals of easing tensions, particularly in international trade, became more prominent. At the same time, sensitivity to fiscal risks in Europe remained high, while conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine persisted as latent risk factors. In the fourth quarter, the diminishing direct market power of geopolitical events was clear: even the longest US government shutdown did not lead to permanent market disruptions, while diplomatic initiatives in the Ukraine conflict provided cautious optimism. Overall, geopolitics remained a relevant background factor but lost short-term market dominance as the year progressed.

Value and Size factors

Furthermore, a clear turnaround in favour of the Value premium was observed. Even at the beginning of the year, Value proved to be significantly more robust than Growth and Size in an environment shaped by risk aversion. This lead continued throughout the entire year: while growth shares did participate in positive market movements at times, they could not catch up with their lag relative to Value. Valuation discipline, stable cash flows and more defensive business models gained importance again, favoured by the normalisation of interest rates, declining inflation and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. After two years of negative premiums, the Value premium for 2025 turned out overall clearly positive, confirming the expected turnaround.

Although the Size premium remained negative when looking at the year as a whole, it showed a noticeable stabilisation in the fourth quarter. While smaller companies continued to suffer from increased financing pressure and high volatility in the first three quarters, interest rate cuts during the year increasingly reduced these burdens. The containment of losses in the final quarter indicates a transitional phase. This results in a cautiously constructive outlook for 2026: if the interest rate environment remains supportive and the economy continues to stabilise, the Size component could gradually recover and build up a positive premium again in the medium term.

Looking ahead: 

At the turn of the year 2025/2026, the focus of the capital markets turned increasingly towards the future monetary policy direction of the major central banks. In the US, an initial interest rate pause by the Federal Reserve is expected, with additional scope for further rate cuts in the second half of 2026. The ECB, on the other hand, is likely to act more cautiously and make monetary policy steps dependent primarily on a clear economic slowdown. Overall, this points to a continued supportive, yet differentiated monetary policy environment.

On the inflation side, current OECD forecasts signal ongoing stabilisation. An inflation rate close to 2% is expected for the eurozone, which of course increases monetary policy planning security for companies and investors. In the US, inflation is likely to move at a slightly higher level and trend towards 3%, without, however, triggering a new inflation surge.

Economically, moderate global growth is expected for 2026. This development is mainly driven by private consumption, government investment programmes and ongoing technological innovations, particularly in the areas of digitisation and artificial intelligence. At the same time, growth remains vulnerable to external shocks, so regional differences and sectoral divergences are likely to continue playing a role.

On the risk side, geopolitical tensions, high national debt in many industrialised nations, and potential new trade policy conflicts remain key areas of uncertainty. In particular, the re-emerging tensions between the US and the EU, including threatened punitive tariffs on EU member states in connection with the Greenland conflict, illustrate how quickly political decisions can influence the market environment. Corresponding countermeasures by the EU could temporarily increase market volatility.

For the capital markets overall, however, this environment still suggests attractive opportunities in both equity and bond markets. At the same time, a selective approach is becoming increasingly important. Valuation, quality and active risk management are coming more into focus and remain crucial to achieving stable, long-term yields in an environment characterised by uncertainty.

Business development

The Ginmon Group now manages nearly half a billion euros and operates profitably at the group level. Thus, in 2025, not only was further growth achieved, but the economic basis of the company was also sustainably strengthened. The combination of scalable processes, efficient technology and a clearly focused product offering forms the foundation for future development.

Looking ahead, the focus is in particular on the new infrastructure. This is now highly scalable and already rolled out in over eleven countries. In this and the coming year, it will also be made available to existing clients step-by-step so they can benefit from the improved technical and functional possibilities. All new individual accounts are already being opened fully on the new infrastructure, as are new account types, including children's and pension accounts (Frühstartrente), fully digital corporate accounts and joint accounts. In addition, an update of the existing Ginmon investment strategies is planned for the current year; further information on this will follow during the year. With a view to retirement provisions, Ginmon is also planning the launch of an eligible pension plan including a payout plan from 01/01/2027.

Conclusion

The past year was characterised by high volatility, geopolitical uncertainties and monetary policy turning points. Despite significant setbacks in the first half of the year, a calm and disciplined approach proved of value: the capital markets recovered noticeably over the course of the year, all losses were recouped and the year overall closed clearly positive.

Our Ginmon strategies proved to be robust and resilient in this environment. Broad diversification, consistent rebalancing and a pronounced Value premium contributed significantly to cushioning fluctuations and disproportionately participating in the recovery of the markets.

Our recommendation for you:

1. Keep calm: In phases of intensive reporting on crises and risks, negative developments are often over-emphasised (negativity bias). This short-term media distortion reinforces uncertainty, but changes nothing about the long-term return mechanisms of the capital markets. Anyone who remains calm and follows the chosen strategy avoids typical wrong decisions in volatile market phases.

2. Use liquidity sensibly: The continued low interest rate level makes it clear that excess liquidity loses attractiveness in the long term. Broadly diversified capital market investments remain crucial to achieving real returns and participating in global growth impulses.

If you would like to review your investment strategy or invest additional capital, our team is at your disposal at any time.